Spatial variability in the risk of death from COVID-19 in Italy, 2020

Mizumoto, Kenji; Dahal, Sushma; Chowell, Gerardo

Objectives: Italy is bearing the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the death toll there has already surpassed that in Wuhan, the city in China where the coronavirus emerged in December 2019. Here we employ statistical methods to assess the severity of COVID-19 pandemic across different regions of Italy. Method: We manually retrieved the daily cumulative numbers of laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths attributed to COVID-19 stratified by region in Italy. We estimated both the crude and time-delay adjusted case fatality ratio across five geographic regions of Italy. Results: The Northwest that includes Lombardy exhibited the highest time-delay-adjusted CFR at 23.0% followed by the Northeast (14.2%), the Center region (11.6%) and the South region (12.1%). The Island region has exhibited the lowest CFR (9.6%). Conclusion: Our estimates in the Northwest and the Northeast are higher than those reported from most affected areas in China. The CFR in Northwest Italy is 1.9-fold higher than that in Wuhan. Our finding reflects the need of urgent medical support in the Northwest region and the appropriate planning and supplies procurement in other regions of Italy focusing on medical care delivery to those who are at the highest risk of poorer outcomes due to COVID-19.