Author: Pengpeng Shi; Shengli Cao; Peihua Feng
Title: SEIR Transmission dynamics model of 2019 nCoV coronavirus with considering the weak infectious ability and changes in latency duration Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: c800ynvc_4
Snippet: Obviously, it is still necessary to make a new assessment of the spread of the 2019-nCoV epidemic situation, which has important practical significance for the research, judgment and prevention of the epidemic situation. In this paper, we established a new SEIR propagation dynamics model, considering the weak transmission ability of the incubation period, the variation of the incubation period length, and the government intervention measures to t.....
Document: Obviously, it is still necessary to make a new assessment of the spread of the 2019-nCoV epidemic situation, which has important practical significance for the research, judgment and prevention of the epidemic situation. In this paper, we established a new SEIR propagation dynamics model, considering the weak transmission ability of the incubation period, the variation of the incubation period length, and the government intervention measures to track and quarantine comprehensively. Based on this new SEIR propagation dynamics model, the effect of infectious ability of incubation patients on the theoretical estimation of the present SEIR model was analyzed, and the occurrence time of peak number in China was predicted.
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