Multi-Agent Simulation Model for the Evaluation of COVID-19 Transmission

Castro, Brenno Moura; de Abreu de Melo, Yuri; Fernanda dos Santos, Nicole; Luiz da Costa Barcellos, André; Noya, Ricardo Choren; Salles, Ronaldo Moreira

This work proposes an agent-based model to analyze the spread processes of the COVID-19 epidemics in open regions and based on hypothetical social scenarios of viral transmissibility. Differently from other previous models, we consider the environment to be a multi-region space in which the epidemic spreads according to the dynamics and the concentration of agents in such regions. This paper suggests that software agents can provide a more suitable model for individuals, and their features, thus showing the influence of civil society in the context of pandemic management. This is achieved by modeling an individual as an agent with a wide range of features (health condition, purchasing power, awareness, mobility, professional activity, age, and gender). The model supports the design of populations and interactions akin to real-life scenarios. Simulation results show that the proposed model can be applied in several ways to support decision-makers to better understand the epidemic spread and the actions that can be taken against the pandemic.