Author: Hay, James A.; Kennedy-Shaffer, Lee; Kanjilal, Sanjat; Lennon, Niall J.; Gabriel, Stacey B.; Lipsitch, Marc; Mina, Michael J.
Title: Estimating epidemiologic dynamics from cross-sectional viral load distributions Cord-id: xsk68m5f Document date: 2021_2_13
ID: xsk68m5f
Snippet: Estimating an epidemic’s trajectory is crucial for developing public health responses to infectious diseases, but incidence data used for such estimation are confounded by variable testing practices. We show instead that the population distribution of viral loads observed under random or symptom-based surveillance, in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values, changes during an epidemic and that Ct values from even limited numbers of random samples can provide improved estimates of an epidemicâ€
Document: Estimating an epidemic’s trajectory is crucial for developing public health responses to infectious diseases, but incidence data used for such estimation are confounded by variable testing practices. We show instead that the population distribution of viral loads observed under random or symptom-based surveillance, in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values, changes during an epidemic and that Ct values from even limited numbers of random samples can provide improved estimates of an epidemic’s trajectory. Combining multiple such samples and the fraction positive improves the precision and robustness of such estimation. We apply our methods to Ct values from surveillance conducted during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in a variety of settings and demonstrate new approaches for real-time estimates of epidemic trajectories for outbreak management and response.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- acute phase and load kinetic: 1
- acute respiratory syndrome and additional probability: 1, 2
- acute respiratory syndrome and additional sample: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
- acute respiratory syndrome and load distribution: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- acute respiratory syndrome and load level: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13
- acute respiratory syndrome and load measurement: 1, 2, 3, 4
- acute respiratory syndrome and lod detection: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66
- acute respiratory syndrome and log10 viral load: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
- acute respiratory syndrome and ma boston hospital: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- additional sample and load level: 1
- additional sample and lod detection: 1, 2, 3
- additional sample and log10 viral load: 1
- load distribution and lod detection: 1
- load distribution and log10 viral load: 1
- load kinetic and log10 viral load: 1
- load level and log10 viral load: 1
- lod detection and log10 viral load: 1, 2
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date