Author: Ralf Engbert; Maximilian M. Rabe; Reinhold Kliegl; Sebastian Reich
Title: Sequential data assimilation of the stochastic SEIR epidemic model for regional COVID-19 dynamics Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 855am0mv_20
Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063768 doi: medRxiv preprint ered the contact parameter from simulated data and obtained reliable estimates from empirical data. The contact parameter is the most critical free parameter in the stochastic SEIR model, since other parameters (mean exposed and infectious duration) can be estimated independently from observed time series [14, 16] . Moreover, the contact par.....
Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.13.20063768 doi: medRxiv preprint ered the contact parameter from simulated data and obtained reliable estimates from empirical data. The contact parameter is the most critical free parameter in the stochastic SEIR model, since other parameters (mean exposed and infectious duration) can be estimated independently from observed time series [14, 16] . Moreover, the contact parameter of the SEIR model is directly related to the basic reproductive rate R 0 [17] . Therefore, our approach could also be framed as model-based method for statistical inference of the basic reproductive number.
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