Revealing the influence of national public health policies for the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Wuhan, China through status dynamic modeling

tianyi qiu; Han Xiao

Our simulation results showed that there was a shortage of hospital beds at the early stage of the epidemic, in which people in status ‫ܫ‬ would not be completely isolated and treated with medical care. In that case, we simulated the effect of hospital bed numbers by multiplying its value by factors from 0.5 to 3 times, for each time point compared with current situations. Results indicated that if the beds in hospitals were halved, the peak time and endpoint would be Feb. 26 th and Jul. 15 th , respectively. Moreover, 34,526 total infectious would be observed in the peak time, 1.43 times than the current situation, and 148,848 people would be infected eventually (Figure 3c ). If the beds in hospitals were 1.5, 2, 2,5 and 3 times compared to the current situation, the total infectious number would be 62,353, 56,031, 53,245 and 51,898, respectively (Supplementary Table 1 ). Typically, tripling the beds in hospitals would end the epidemic 9 days earlier than the current situation ( Figure 3d) . Different from the lockdown of the city, when beds in hospitals were 2 times of current situations at each time point, the effect of increasing beds in hospitals was no longer significant (Supplementary Figure 2) . In fact, when increasing the beds of hospitals by 3 times of the current situation, the total infectious at the endpoint would only decrease by 2.6% (1,347) than the 2.5-fold increase.