SEIR Transmission dynamics model of 2019 nCoV coronavirus with considering the weak infectious ability and changes in latency duration

Pengpeng Shi; Shengli Cao; Peihua Feng

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.16.20023655 doi: medRxiv preprint 4 / 5 gradual shortening of the incubation period is obviously conducive to suppressing the spread of the epidemic, and eventually leading to a reduction in the peak number of infections. Fig. 4 . Evaluation of the spread of China's 2019-nCoV epidemic Finally, the trend of China's 2019-nCoV epidemic was evaluated by using the new present SEIR model. In order to obtain an interval estimate of the peak number of infections and its occurrence time, the contact rate was set to vary within the interval of [2.8, 4.2] . The prediction of the current theoretical model indicates that the number of 2019-nCoV infections in China reaches its peak after February 19, and the upper and lower limits of the estimated peak time of the epidemic respectively correspond to the abscissa of the peaks of the upper and lower envelopes of the theoretical forecast data of the number of infected. The current theoretical estimation of the number of infected people in China is in good agreement with the raw number of infected people in the period from January 23, 2020 to February 10, 2020. It is worth noting that the theoretical model and parameters of this paper were initially established before February 5. The prediction results of the number of infected persons from February 6 to February 10 are mainly consistent with the actual data of subsequent reports, which initially proves the feasibility of the model in predicting the short-term development situation of the epidemic.