Land Use Change and Coronavirus Emergence Risk

Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Galli, N.; Hayman, D.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) causing coronaviruses are mostly discovered in Asian horseshoe bats. It is still unclear how ongoing land use changes may facilitate SARS-related coronavirus transmission to humans. Here we use a multivariate hotspot analysis of high-resolution land-use data to show that regions of China populated by horseshoe bats are hotspots of forest fragmentation, livestock and human density. We also identify areas susceptible to new hotspot emergence in response to moderate expansion of urbanization, livestock production, or forest disturbance, thereby highlighting regions vulnerable to SARS-CoV spillover under future land-use change. In China population growth and increasing meat consumption associated with urbanization and economic development have expanded the footprint of agriculture, leading to human encroachment in wildlife habitat and increased livestock density in areas adjacent to fragmented forests. The reduced distance between horseshoe-bats and humans elevates the risk for SARS-related coronavirus transmission to humans.