Test-adjusted results of mortality for Covid-19 in Germany, USA, UK

Mimkes, J.; Janssen, R.

In a disease, where all infected persons show symptoms, it is reasonable to calculate mortality by case to fatality rate CFR. Deaths follow infections by a certain time lag. However, in the Covid-19 pandemic many infectious patients show no or hardly any symptoms. The reported infections and deaths do not run parallel, but diverge with the volume of tests. Our investigations for Germany, USA and UK indicate that deaths do not follow the number of infections, but the positive rate of tests, multiplied by a constant factor F and shifted by about two weeks. These test adjusted results of mortality allow for the estimation of the number of deaths of Covid-19 about two weeks ahead, even in a sharply rising state of the pandemic. This gives medical authorities two weeks of time to plan for resources.