Selected article for: "compartmental model and human mobility"
Author: Frankenburg, Ian; Banerjee, Sudipto
Title: A Compartment Model of Human Mobility and Early Covid-19 Dynamics in NYC
  • Cord-id: uo1g449a
  • Document date: 2021_2_3
    • ID: uo1g449a
    Snippet: In this paper, we build a mechanistic system to understand the relation between a reduction in human mobility and Covid-19 spread dynamics within New York City. To this end, we propose a multivariate compartmental model that jointly models smartphone mobility data and case counts during the first 90 days of the epidemic. Parameter calibration is achieved through the formulation of a general Bayesian hierarchical model to provide uncertainty quantification of resulting estimates. The open-source
    Document: In this paper, we build a mechanistic system to understand the relation between a reduction in human mobility and Covid-19 spread dynamics within New York City. To this end, we propose a multivariate compartmental model that jointly models smartphone mobility data and case counts during the first 90 days of the epidemic. Parameter calibration is achieved through the formulation of a general Bayesian hierarchical model to provide uncertainty quantification of resulting estimates. The open-source probabilistic programming language Stan is used for the requisite computation. Through sensitivity analysis and out-of-sample forecasting, we find our simple and interpretable model provides evidence that reductions in human mobility altered case dynamics.

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