Epidemic-Driven Collapse in a System with Limited Economic Resource. II

Gandzha, I. S.; Kliushnichenko, O. V.; Lukyanets, S. P.

We consider a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic. To this end, we exploit a simple SIS-like (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model with negative feedback between the infected population size and a collective economic resource associated with the average amount of money or income per economic agent. The coupling mechanism in such a system is supposed to be of activation type, with the recovery rate governed by the Arrhenius-like law. In this case, economic resource formally plays the role of effective market temperature and the minimum level of resource consumption is associated with activation energy. Such a coupling can result in the collapsing effect opposite to thermal explosion, so that the epidemic could ultimately drive the system to a collapse at nonzero activation energy because of the limited resource. In this case, the system can no longer stabilize and return to the stable pre-epidemic state or a poorer post-epidemic state. We demonstrate that the system's collapse can partially be mitigated by external subsidies meaning constant resource inflow from some external source or by means of debt interpreted as a negative resource. We also consider a simple quarantine scenario and show that it can lead to different socioeconomic outcomes, depending on initial resource (market temperature) and the minimum level of resource consumption (activation energy).