Author: Carroll, Cody; Bhattacharjee, Satarupa; Chen, Yaqing; Dubey, Paromita; Fan, Jianing; Gajardo, Ãlvaro; Zhou, Xiner; Müller, Hans-Georg; Wang, Jane-Ling
Title: Time dynamics of COVID-19 Cord-id: z858o8r5 Document date: 2020_12_3
ID: z858o8r5
Snippet: We apply tools from functional data analysis to model cumulative trajectories of COVID-19 cases across countries, establishing a framework for quantifying and comparing cases and deaths across countries longitudinally. It emerges that a country’s trajectory during an initial first month “priming period†largely determines how the situation unfolds subsequently. We also propose a method for forecasting case counts, which takes advantage of the common, latent information in the entire sample
Document: We apply tools from functional data analysis to model cumulative trajectories of COVID-19 cases across countries, establishing a framework for quantifying and comparing cases and deaths across countries longitudinally. It emerges that a country’s trajectory during an initial first month “priming period†largely determines how the situation unfolds subsequently. We also propose a method for forecasting case counts, which takes advantage of the common, latent information in the entire sample of curves, instead of just the history of a single country. Our framework facilitates to quantify the effects of demographic covariates and social mobility on doubling rates and case fatality rates through a time-varying regression model. Decreased workplace mobility is associated with lower doubling rates with a roughly 2 week delay, and case fatality rates exhibit a positive feedback pattern.
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