Will there be a third COVID-19 wave? A SVEIRD model-based study of India’s situation

Kannan, Dwarakesh; Gurusriram, R.; Banerjee, Rudra; Bhattacharjee, Srijit; Varadwaj, Pritish Kumar

Since the first patient was detected in India in late February 2020, the SARS-CoV-II virus is playing havoc on India. After the first wave, India is now riding the second wave. As was in the case of European countries like Italy and the UK, the second wave is more contagious and at the time of writing this paper, the per day infection is as high as 400,000. The alarming thing is it is not uncommon that people are getting infected multiple times. On the other hand, mass vaccination has started step by step. There is also a growing danger of potential third wave is unavoidable, which can even infect kids and minors. In this situation, an estimation of the dynamics of SARS-CoV-II is necessary to combat the pandemic. We have used a modified SEIRD model that includes vaccination and repeat infection as well. We have studied India and 8 Indian states with varying SARS-CoV-II infections. We have shown that the COVID-19 wave will be repeated from time to time, but the intensity will slow down with time. In the most possible situation, our calculation shows COVID-19 will remain endemic for the foreseeable future unless we can increase our vaccination rate manifold.