Author: Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang
Title: Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 3e1ji2mw_19
Snippet: The basic reproduction number is the average number of secondary infections due to an infective during the infectious period when everyone else in the population is susceptible [22] . It can depict the transmission risk in the early phase of disease transmission. With the spreading of the COVID-19, increasingly intensive intervention measures have been implemented and people gradually enhanced self-protection. In order to quantity the daily repro.....
Document: The basic reproduction number is the average number of secondary infections due to an infective during the infectious period when everyone else in the population is susceptible [22] . It can depict the transmission risk in the early phase of disease transmission. With the spreading of the COVID-19, increasingly intensive intervention measures have been implemented and people gradually enhanced self-protection. In order to quantity the daily reproduction number and evaluate the transmission risk changing over time, inspired by Tang et al. [13] , the initial contact rate c 0 in the formula of R c is replaced by the aforementioned time-dependent contact rate c(t) to reflect the changes of intervention measures and people's behaviors. Thereby, we define
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