Author: Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang
Title: Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 3e1ji2mw_29
Snippet: Using the estimated parameter values and the number of cumulative cases T (t), the effective daily reproduction ratio R e (t) can be calculated ( Figure 5 ). The result demonstrates that R e (t) has dropped sharply from 3.34 (R e (1) = 3.34) on January 20th to 0.89 (R e (12) = 0.89, less than 1) on January 31st, 2020, which implies that the integrated control strategies implemented in mainland China excluding Hubei has successfully reduced transm.....
Document: Using the estimated parameter values and the number of cumulative cases T (t), the effective daily reproduction ratio R e (t) can be calculated ( Figure 5 ). The result demonstrates that R e (t) has dropped sharply from 3.34 (R e (1) = 3.34) on January 20th to 0.89 (R e (12) = 0.89, less than 1) on January 31st, 2020, which implies that the integrated control strategies implemented in mainland China excluding Hubei has successfully reduced transmission intensity and prevented the epidemic growth in a short time frame.
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