Author: Hui Wan; Jing-an Cui; Guo-Jing Yang
Title: Risk estimation and prediction by modeling the transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China excluding Hubei province Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 3e1ji2mw_31
Snippet: ⟨ Figure 5 is near here ⟩ Using the estimated parameter values and the expression of the effective reproduction ratio R e (t), the threshold value of the intervention coefficient with respect to contact, q 1 , can be calculated, which is 0.3. This implies that in order to block the continuous spread of the virus, the value of q 1 must be less than 0.3 to guarantee R e (t) is below 1. In other words, the contact rate should be kept below 30% o.....
Document: ⟨ Figure 5 is near here ⟩ Using the estimated parameter values and the expression of the effective reproduction ratio R e (t), the threshold value of the intervention coefficient with respect to contact, q 1 , can be calculated, which is 0.3. This implies that in order to block the continuous spread of the virus, the value of q 1 must be less than 0.3 to guarantee R e (t) is below 1. In other words, the contact rate should be kept below 30% of the normal level.
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