COVID-19 transmission in the first presidential debate in 2020

Shao, Xiaoliang; Li, Xianting

The infection risks of Biden, Wallace, and the audience by Trump and the first lady were assessed during the first presidential debate. The debate scene was established numerically, and two cases, i.e., only Trump being infected and both Trump and the first lady being infected, were set up for risk analysis. The infection probabilities at different positions were assessed by using the Wells–Riley equation with consideration of the effects of air distribution and face mask. It was concluded that (1) the infection risks of Biden and Wallace were lower due to the reasonable distance from Trump, with the maximum probability of 0.34% at 40 quanta/h for both Trump and the first lady being infected; (2) the infection probabilities in the audience area were lower for the long distance from the debate stage, with the maximum probability of 0.35%. Wearing masks resulted in a notable decrease in the infection probability to 0.09%; and (3) there was a certain local area surrounding Trump and the first lady with a relatively greater infection probability. The preliminary analysis provides some reference for protection of the next presidential debate and other public events.