Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde
Title: Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: h86mpz6o_36
Snippet: We employ this system for calibration and for prediction. Initial conditions for our solution are N ever 2 (0) = N ever observed (0) = 16 for 24 February 2020 (RKI, 2020), N 3 (0) = N 4 (0) = 0 and N 1 (0) = 83; 100; 000 N ever 2 (0), where N = 83:1 million is the population size in Germany before the epidemic. Initial conditions for our calibration of the RSC regime are numbers N s (t r ) where t r =30 March 2020 is the day when the RSC regime s.....
Document: We employ this system for calibration and for prediction. Initial conditions for our solution are N ever 2 (0) = N ever observed (0) = 16 for 24 February 2020 (RKI, 2020), N 3 (0) = N 4 (0) = 0 and N 1 (0) = 83; 100; 000 N ever 2 (0), where N = 83:1 million is the population size in Germany before the epidemic. Initial conditions for our calibration of the RSC regime are numbers N s (t r ) where t r =30 March 2020 is the day when the RSC regime starts. Initial conditions for 7 We employ "around" as some individuals will have ended up in state 3 whose number does not enter the expression in (1).
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