Author: Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde
Title: Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: h86mpz6o_55
Snippet: The …t for total incidences on the right is very good. The red curve …ts data up to 29 March very well and shows where the number reported by RKI would have gone if no RSC had been imposed. The yellow curve shows the numbers one can expect for the weeks to come. From the prediction of the model we are around the turning point now in Germany. The absolute numbers of incidences should now fall on average over the coming weeks. This prediction a.....
Document: The …t for total incidences on the right is very good. The red curve …ts data up to 29 March very well and shows where the number reported by RKI would have gone if no RSC had been imposed. The yellow curve shows the numbers one can expect for the weeks to come. From the prediction of the model we are around the turning point now in Germany. The absolute numbers of incidences should now fall on average over the coming weeks. This prediction assumes that public health measures in place do not change and that individuals stick to these rules as they used to.
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