Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects

Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde

While this was expected and predicted by many, our quantitative model can make predictions about the long-run e¤ects of these distancing measures. If measures were upheld permanently, the peak of COVID19-prevalence N 2 (t) would be reached end of April already. We can de…ne the end of an epidemic again such that prevalence N 2 (t) falls below 1,000 or the daily incidences are below 100. Prevalence would be lower than 1,000 beginning of July and incidences would be below 100 beginning of May. We stress again that these are expected dates that should hold if RSC are upheld permanently. We also stress that this would not mean a complete end of the epidemic in the sense of herd immunity. There would still be many individuals in state 1 that are not immune and that can be infected and turn sick.