Developing a Conceptual Model for the Post-COVID-19 Pandemic Changing Tourism Risk Perception

Chan, Chung-Shing

The global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has tremendously reshaped the tourism industry and destinations worldwide. Tourism destinations and the travel market require empirical research to support their post-pandemic strategies, especially in relation to the influences of changing perceptions of tourism risks, experience, and behavioural intention. This paper aims to propose a conceptual model and its hypotheses of the perceived tourism risks of natural and man-made disasters to explain the associations between the expected travel experience and ultimate travel behaviour. This paper provides a foundation for further empirical study based on a literature review and discussion. Several areas of theoretical development are identified for immediate research: (1) comparison of self-interpretation and understanding of multi-dimensional tourism risks of natural and man-made complexity in epidemics across a great variety of geographical and geo-political territories; (2) a complex web of influence to changing safety concerns and risk perception by information dissemination; (3) the effect of destination selection or hesitation in travel intention caused by changing destination image; and (4) local perception of the epidemic and health crisis. Destination authorities are recommended to (1) strengthen the preparedness and emergency responses of an effective disaster management process, (2) maintain the emotional solidarity of both tourists and local residents, and (3) mitigate multiple dimensions of the perceived risks, mainly associated with the health and psychological risks of those affected.