Author: Pengpeng Shi; Shengli Cao; Peihua Feng
Title: SEIR Transmission dynamics model of 2019 nCoV coronavirus with considering the weak infectious ability and changes in latency duration Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: c800ynvc_17
Snippet: This paper attempts to estimate the short-term development of China's 2019-nCoV epidemic and predicts that the number of people infected in China will peak after February 19. It should be noted that because the infectious ability of patient in latent period and variation of incubation period length are considered, our present model in this paper is closer to the real situation, so the estimates based on it should also be more reliable. However, s.....
Document: This paper attempts to estimate the short-term development of China's 2019-nCoV epidemic and predicts that the number of people infected in China will peak after February 19. It should be noted that because the infectious ability of patient in latent period and variation of incubation period length are considered, our present model in this paper is closer to the real situation, so the estimates based on it should also be more reliable. However, some necessary assumptions are still made during the model establishment in this paper. The mathematical descriptions made by the model are different from the complex reality, which leads to the inevitable deviation of the prediction results. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.
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