Author: Tjahjono, V. R.; Kurniawan, H.; Hakam, A.; Putri, E. R. M.; Susanto, H.
Title: Epidemic modeling of COVID-19 in the ASEAN countries using a genetic partial fitting algorithm with the presence of a second wave Cord-id: vsl3whhl Document date: 2021_1_1
ID: vsl3whhl
Snippet: We present an SIRD epidemic modelling for COVID-19 outbreak in the ASEAN member countries. The occurrence of a second wave in the region adds complexity to the parameter estimation of the SIRD model. In this case, a standard genetic algorithm cannot fully capture the dynamic transmission of the pandemic. We therefore introduce a genetic partial fitting algorithm (GPFA) of seven-day intervals. We show that our method outperforms the standard algorithm with a significant reduction in the Root Mean
Document: We present an SIRD epidemic modelling for COVID-19 outbreak in the ASEAN member countries. The occurrence of a second wave in the region adds complexity to the parameter estimation of the SIRD model. In this case, a standard genetic algorithm cannot fully capture the dynamic transmission of the pandemic. We therefore introduce a genetic partial fitting algorithm (GPFA) of seven-day intervals. We show that our method outperforms the standard algorithm with a significant reduction in the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value. We also extend our study to produce a real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number with a confidence interval to incorporate uncertainties in the model. © The Author(’s).
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