Author: Xinmiao Fu; Qi Ying; Tieyong Zeng; Tao Long; Yan Wang
Title: Simulating and Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases of SARS-CoV-2 in China by Boltzmann Function-based Regression Analyses Document date: 2020_2_18
ID: 9j5yda3k_37
Snippet: Nevertheless, our estimates based on the established Boltzmann functions are not absolutely 232 guaranteed, mainly because of the uncertainty of the reported data (Figs. 3, S2 and S3) . We 233 estimated the potential total numbers (refer to Table 1) under the assumption that the relative 234 uncertainty of the reported data follows a single-sided normal distribution with a mean of 1.0 and 235 a standard deviation of 10%, and this deviation may be.....
Document: Nevertheless, our estimates based on the established Boltzmann functions are not absolutely 232 guaranteed, mainly because of the uncertainty of the reported data (Figs. 3, S2 and S3) . We 233 estimated the potential total numbers (refer to Table 1) under the assumption that the relative 234 uncertainty of the reported data follows a single-sided normal distribution with a mean of 1.0 and 235 a standard deviation of 10%, and this deviation may be underestimated. If the real uncertainty of 236 released data by health commissions is larger than 10%, the potential total numbers of confirmed 237 cases would accordingly increase, and the key dates will be postponed. Another limitation is that 238 this estimate is based on the assumption that the overall conditions are not changing. This might 239 not be true, given that in many regions the workers have started to return for work half a month
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