Severe airport sanitarian control could slow down the spreading of COVID-19 pandemics in Brazil

Servio Pontes Ribeiro; Wesley Dattilo; Alcides Castro e Silva; Alexandre Barbosa Reis; Aristoteles Goes-Neto; Luiz Alcantara; Marta Giovanetti; Wendel Coura-vital; Geraldo Wilson Fernandes; Vasco Ariston Azevedo

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . 79 Italy for this article) represent the probability of an external invasion of infection in each 80 city. Additionally, we also further explored the vulnerability of the Amazon region, 81 especially of those remote towns where indigenous and traditional communities 82 predominate. 83 84 Materials & Methods 85 In order to describe the pattern of air transportation and its role in the spreading of the 86 disease, we built a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model (Hethcote 1989 ; 87 Anderson 1991) split amongst the cities that are interconnected by flights. In this model, 88 the population size inside each city is irrelevant, as well as when the collective infection 89 stage was reached. Thus, we assumed that the city was fully infected and became 90 infectious to the whole system, and, therefore, became a source and not a sink of 91 infection events. Hence, the SIR model started having cities with only susceptible 92 events. Infected events only appeared by migration, i.e. travelers only from Italy and 93 Spain, for sake of simplicity and proximity to the facts. 94 After the first occurrence is registered in the country, infected events started to 95 spread through the national airlines. 96 We used a modified version of the SIR model, which took into account the 97 topology of how the cities-demes were linked by domestic flights. In the SIR original 98 model, the infection of susceptible cities occurs by probability β of a healthy being (S) 99 encounters an infected one (I). Conversely, the model has a probability of an infected 100 one get recovered (R) given by a parameter γ. Analytically: Figure 3A ). Looking at the daily All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.