Author: Qihui Yang; Chunlin Yi; Aram Vajdi; Lee W Cohnstaedt; Hongyu Wu; Xiaolong Guo; Caterina M Scoglio
Title: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kcb68hue_40
Snippet: More specifically, we incorporate non-exponential interevent time distributions to the SEIR model using the modified Gillespie algorithm proposed by Boguñá, Lafuerza, Toral, & Serrano (2014) . Transitions from the susceptible state to the exposed state is a Poisson process that follows the exponential distribution. Following lognormal distributions, the mean and median of the incubation period are estimated at 5.6 days and 5.0 days, respectivel.....
Document: More specifically, we incorporate non-exponential interevent time distributions to the SEIR model using the modified Gillespie algorithm proposed by Boguñá, Lafuerza, Toral, & Serrano (2014) . Transitions from the susceptible state to the exposed state is a Poisson process that follows the exponential distribution. Following lognormal distributions, the mean and median of the incubation period are estimated at 5.6 days and 5.0 days, respectively, while the infectious period is of mean 3.9 days and median 1.5 days , which is in line with Sanche et al. (2020) . The number of simulation runs is 80.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- incubation period and lognormal distribution: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21
- incubation period and lognormal distribution follow: 1, 2
- incubation period and median day: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12
- incubation period and Poisson process: 1
- incubation period and SEIR model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50, 51, 52, 53, 54, 55, 56, 57, 58, 59, 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76
- incubation period and susceptible state: 1, 2
- infectious period and lognormal distribution: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
- infectious period and lognormal distribution follow: 1
- infectious period and median day: 1, 2, 3
- infectious period and Poisson process: 1
- infectious period and SEIR model: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 50
- infectious period and simulation run: 1, 2
- infectious period and susceptible state: 1, 2, 3, 4
- lognormal distribution and Poisson process: 1
- lognormal distribution and SEIR model: 1, 2
- lognormal distribution follow and Poisson process: 1
- median day and SEIR model: 1
- SEIR model and simulation run: 1
- SEIR model and susceptible state: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date