Author: Qihui Yang; Chunlin Yi; Aram Vajdi; Lee W Cohnstaedt; Hongyu Wu; Xiaolong Guo; Caterina M Scoglio
Title: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kcb68hue_40
Snippet: More specifically, we incorporate non-exponential interevent time distributions to the SEIR model using the modified Gillespie algorithm proposed by Boguñá, Lafuerza, Toral, & Serrano (2014) . Transitions from the susceptible state to the exposed state is a Poisson process that follows the exponential distribution. Following lognormal distributions, the mean and median of the incubation period are estimated at 5.6 days and 5.0 days, respectivel.....
Document: More specifically, we incorporate non-exponential interevent time distributions to the SEIR model using the modified Gillespie algorithm proposed by Boguñá, Lafuerza, Toral, & Serrano (2014) . Transitions from the susceptible state to the exposed state is a Poisson process that follows the exponential distribution. Following lognormal distributions, the mean and median of the incubation period are estimated at 5.6 days and 5.0 days, respectively, while the infectious period is of mean 3.9 days and median 1.5 days , which is in line with Sanche et al. (2020) . The number of simulation runs is 80.
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