Coronary artery calcium score may be a novel predictor of COVID-19 prognosis: a retrospective study

Takeshita, Yuichiro; Terada, Jiro; Fujita, Retsu; Hirasawa, Yasutaka; Kinoshita, Taku; Isaka, Yuri; Kinouchi, Toru; Tajima, Hiroshi; Tada, Yuji; Kiryu, Shigeru; Tsushima, Kenji

BACKGROUND: Although several studies have reported an association between atherosclerosis-related diseases and COVID-19, the relationship between COVID-19 severity and atherosclerosis progression remains unclear. The aim of this study is to determine the coronary artery calcium score (CACS) prognostic value in patients with COVID-19 using indices such as deterioration in oxygenation and CT images of the chest. METHODS: This was a single-centre retrospective study of 53 consecutive patients with COVID-19 in Narita who were admitted to our hospital between March 2020 and August 2020. CACS was calculated based on non-gated CT scans of the chest performed on admission day. The patients were divided into the following two groups based on CACS: group 1 (CACS ≥180, n=11) and group 2 (CACS <180, n=42). Following univariate analysis of the main variables, multivariate analysis of variables that may be associated with COVID-19 progression was performed. RESULTS: Multivariable logistic regression analysis of age, sex, smoking history, diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, number of days from symptom onset to hospitalisation and CACS of ≥180 was performed. It revealed that unlike CACS of <180, CACS of ≥180 is associated with exacerbation of oxygenation or CT images of the chest during hospitalisation (OR: 12.879, 95% CI: 1.399 to 380.401). Furthermore, this model of eight variables showed good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.119). CONCLUSION: CACS may be a prognosis marker of COVID-19 severity. Although coronary artery calcification is not typically assessed in pneumonia cases, it may provide a valuable clinical indicator for predicting severe COVID-19 outcomes.