Author: Qihui Yang; Chunlin Yi; Aram Vajdi; Lee W Cohnstaedt; Hongyu Wu; Xiaolong Guo; Caterina M Scoglio
Title: Short-term forecasts and long-term mitigation evaluations for the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province, China Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: kcb68hue_69
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province peaked at over 15,000 on February 12 th and became almost zero in mid-March (Xinhua, 2020) . Our simulation results indicate that the containment of this highly contagious disease was achieved by stringent control measures by the Chinese government. Without continued and aggressive control measures, the.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 of the COVID-19 epidemic in Hubei Province peaked at over 15,000 on February 12 th and became almost zero in mid-March (Xinhua, 2020) . Our simulation results indicate that the containment of this highly contagious disease was achieved by stringent control measures by the Chinese government. Without continued and aggressive control measures, the epidemic in Hubei Province would have become persistent. If the infection rate is reduced through the enhanced protective measures by 25%, the epidemic would reach the peak in mid-February and fade out in late September. Reducing the average node degree inside each city via social distancing measures, the number of infectious cases would peak at mid-February and decrease to zero at mid-June. Only with combined implementation of enhanced protective measures and social distancing measures, the epidemic dynamics would peak at around mid-February and approximate the actual epidemic trajectory in March. This can be an important message for countries going through the exponential growth of the epidemic in the current days.
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