Author: Dhenain, Marc
Title: ESTIMATION OF COVID-19 CASES IN FRANCE AND IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES: HOMOGENEISATION BASED ON MORTALITY Cord-id: rxkltaqy Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: rxkltaqy
Snippet: Every day the authorities of different countries provide an estimate of the number of persons affected by Covid-19 and a count of fatality. We propose to use the fatality reported in each country to provide a better estimate (Ct0-estimated) of the number of cases at a given time t0. Ct0-estimated = (Ft0 / Fr-est) * (1+ [C(est-d) / C(est-3d)])6 With Ft0: number of actual fatalities reported in a country at time t0; Fr-est: estimated fatality rate; C(est-d): estimated fatalities 18 days before t0;
Document: Every day the authorities of different countries provide an estimate of the number of persons affected by Covid-19 and a count of fatality. We propose to use the fatality reported in each country to provide a better estimate (Ct0-estimated) of the number of cases at a given time t0. Ct0-estimated = (Ft0 / Fr-est) * (1+ [C(est-d) / C(est-3d)])6 With Ft0: number of actual fatalities reported in a country at time t0; Fr-est: estimated fatality rate; C(est-d): estimated fatalities 18 days before t0; C(est-3d): estimated fatalities 21 days before t0. Based on Ct0-estimated calculated using a fatality rate of 2%, we assessed the number of cases April 10th, 2020 in Belgium, China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea, Netherlands, Spain, United Kingdom and USA. This number reached 2,872,097 in France and 924,892 persons in Germany. The proposed formulas also make it possible to evaluate the impact of policies to prevent the spread of epidemic on the appearance of new cases.
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- Try single phrases listed below for: 1
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date