Simulating and Forecasting the Cumulative Confirmed Cases of SARS-CoV-2 in China by Boltzmann Function-based Regression Analyses

Xinmiao Fu; Qi Ying; Tieyong Zeng; Tao Long; Yan Wang

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 Fitting data on the confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 to Boltzmann function and estimating 124 the potential total number of confirmed cases 125 Fitting analyses using Boltzmann function indicate that all sets of data were well fitted with the 126 function (all R 2 values being close to 0.999; Figs. 1, 2 and S1). Parameter A2 in the Boltzmann 127 function directly represents the potential total number of confirmed cases (refer to equation 1). 128 As summarized in Table 1 , the potential total number of confirmed cases for mainland China, 129 Hubei Province, Wuhan City, and other provinces were estimated as 72800±600, 59300±600, 130 42100±700 and 12800±100; respectively (also refer to Fig. 1) ; those for the six mostly influenced 131 provinces (Guangdong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hunan, Anhui and Jiangxi) were 1300±10, 1170±10, 132 1260±10, 1050±10, 1020±10 and 940±10, respectively (also refer to Fig. 2) ; those for the top-4 133 major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen) were 394±4, 328±3, 337±3 and 397±4, 134 respectively (also refer to Fig. S1 ).