Author: Hao Xiong; Huili Yan
Title: Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model Document date: 2020_2_12
ID: er3zmcz2_10
Snippet: This article was intended to simulate the epidemic spreading trend under the first situation of free propagation and then under the intervention measures. We first constructed a new transmission model of epidemic spreading based on the system dynamics and SEIR model. Then we estimate the model parameters and the basic reproductive number of 2019-nCoV, on the basis of the latest official confirmed infected data in the mainland China. We then forec.....
Document: This article was intended to simulate the epidemic spreading trend under the first situation of free propagation and then under the intervention measures. We first constructed a new transmission model of epidemic spreading based on the system dynamics and SEIR model. Then we estimate the model parameters and the basic reproductive number of 2019-nCoV, on the basis of the latest official confirmed infected data in the mainland China. We then forecast the peak number of outbreak size and the duration of epidemic spreading under the extremely serious prevention measures. Finally, we simulate possible spreading course of 2019-nCoV under different quarantine rate and starting date of prevention measures in . CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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