When COVID-19 will decline in India? Prediction by combination of recovery and case load rate

Bhattacharjee, Atanu; Kumar, Mukesh; Patel, Kamalesh Kumar

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. There is sudden need of statistical modeling due to onset of COVID-19 pandemic across the world. But health planning and policy requirements need the estimates of disease problem from clinical data. OBJECTIVE: The present study aimed to predict the declination of COVID-19 using recovery rate and case load rate on basis of available data form India. METHODS: The reported COVID-19 cases in the country were obtained from website (https://datahub.io/core/covid-19#resource-covid-19_zip/). The confirmed cases, recovered cases and deaths were used for estimating recovery rate, case load rate and death rate till date June 04, 2020. RESULTS: A total of 216919 confirmed cases were reported nationwide in India on June 04, 2020. It is found that the recovery rate increased to 47.99% and case load rate decreased to 49.21%. Death rate is found to be very low 2.80%. Accordingly, coincidence of the difference of cases load rate and recovery rate (delta) will reveal a declination in expected COVID-19 cases. CONCLUSION: The epidemic in the country was mainly caused by the movement of people from various foreign countries to India. Lockdown as restricting the migration of population and decision taken by the government to quarantine the population may greatly reduce the risk of continued spread of the epidemic in India. This study predicts that when the case load rate gets lesser than recovery rate, there after COVID-19 patients would be started to decline.