Simulating the infected population and spread trend of 2019-nCov under different policy by EIR model

Hao Xiong; Huili Yan

In this study, we provide a new Exposed-Identified-Recovered (EIR) model integrate the epidemic spreading processes before and after the prevention measures. And we supposed that the spreading process are mainly depended on the exposed process. On the contrary, as the identified individual generally will be quarantined by the hospital and can't spread any more. Then, we nowcast the probable peak size of the epidemic and the possible duration of epidemic spreading, first by assuming the initial phase are freely spread by the exposed individuals, then the contact with the exposed individual are blocked under strict intervention measures that have been implemented from Jan.23, 2020. More importantly, from a public concern viewpoint, we simulate the possible future trend of the epidemic spreading under different quarantine rate and quarantine starting date.