A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

Riyapan, Pakwan; Shuaib, Sherif Eneye; Intarasit, Arthit

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible (S), exposed (E), symptomatically infected (I(s)), asymptomatically infected (I(a)), quarantined (Q), recovered (R), and death (D), respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as R(cvd19) of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R(cvd19) < 1. On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if R(cvd19) > 1. The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model's analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.