Should contact bans be lifted in Germany? A quantitative prediction of its effects

Jean Roch Donsimoni; René Glawion; Bodo Plachter; Constantin Weiser; Klaus Wälde

Plotting the projection for 27 April onwards also requires a value for : This share of the population that will have been infected once the epidemic is over is the most di¢ cult parameter to be pinned down. If we keep the value of = 0:06; RSC would just imply a shifting of the number of sick over the length of the epidemic. It would, however, not reduce the overall number of sick. It seems natural to assume, however, that RSC not only a¤ect current infection rates but also the long-run share of individuals that are ever infected. We therefore assume a lower value for the long-run infection rate of = 0:04: 12 As is clear from this discussion, a complete lifting of current social distancing rules should lead to an increase in the number of sick individuals again. Figure 6 therefore summarizes the trade-o¤ decision makers face. Preserving current RSC would be good from a public health perspective but would imply further very high economic costs. A complete lift on 20 April bears the risk of returning to fast growth of the number of sick individuals. The conclusion discusses options that might strike a balance between both scenarios.