Author: Fathi-Kazerooni, Sina; Rojas-Cessa, Roberto; Dong, Ziqian; Umpaichitra, Vatcharapan
Title: Correlation of subway turnstile entries and COVID-19 prevalence and deaths in New York City Cord-id: vxtcsd7o Document date: 2020_12_4
ID: vxtcsd7o
Snippet: In this paper, we show a strong correlation between turnstile entries data of the New York City (NYC) subway provided by NYC Metropolitan Transport Authority and COVID-19 deaths and cases reported by the NYC Department of Health from March to May 2020. This correlation is obtained through linear regression and confirmed through the prediction of the number of deaths by a Long Short-Term Memory neural network. The correlation is significantly accentuated through the consideration of incubation an
Document: In this paper, we show a strong correlation between turnstile entries data of the New York City (NYC) subway provided by NYC Metropolitan Transport Authority and COVID-19 deaths and cases reported by the NYC Department of Health from March to May 2020. This correlation is obtained through linear regression and confirmed through the prediction of the number of deaths by a Long Short-Term Memory neural network. The correlation is significantly accentuated through the consideration of incubation and symptomatic phases of this disease as experienced by people who died from it. We extend the analysis to each individual NYC borough. We also estimate the dates when the number of COVID-19 deaths and cases would approach zero by using the Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average model on the reported deaths and cases. We also backward forecast the dates when the first cases and deaths may have occurred.
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