Author: Gehringer, Agnieszka; Mayer, Thomas
Title: Measuring the Business Cycle Chronology with a Novel Business Cycle Indicator for Germany Cord-id: zr1bsmx1 Document date: 2021_4_9
ID: zr1bsmx1
Snippet: This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.
Document: This paper introduces a Business Cycle Indicator to compile a transparent and reliable chronology of past business cycle turning points for Germany. The Indicator is derived applying the statistical method of Principal Component Analysis, based on information from 20 economic time series. In this way, the Business Cycle Indicator grasps the development of the broader economic activity and has several advantages over a business cycle assessment based on quarterly series of Gross Domestic Product.
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