Spatial epidemiology of networked metapopulation: An overview

Lin WANG; Xiang Li

From a theoretical viewpoint, it is significant to analyze the epidemic threshold, which is instructive for the assessment of the disease transmissibility as well as the outbreak potential. Such information is also important to regulate the implementation of intervention strategies. Based on the empirical evidences that the topology of various socio-technical networks including the airline network presents a high-level heterogeneity, Colizza et al. [88] studied the effect of general heterogeneous networks, demonstrating that the epidemic threshold is significantly decreased with the augmentation of topological fluctuations. Considering that the theory developed in Colizza et al. [88] is based on the simplification that individual diffusion rate per subpopulation is inversely proportional to the degree of subpopulations, Colizza and Vespignani [89] generalized the study by introducing more realistic diffusion rules, such as the traffic-and the population-dependent patterns. Importantly, using the approach of branching process, Colizza and Vespignani [89] proposed a global invasion threshold, R ⋆ , which distinguishes the lower bound condition for transmitting the infections to downstream unaffected subpopulations. The formula of R ⋆ author/funder. All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission.