Author: Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Marc Lipsitch; Yonatan Grad
Title: Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: nzat41wu_10
Snippet: For simulations with seasonal forcing, the post-intervention resurgent peak could exceed the size of the unconstrained epidemic (Figure 2 , Figure S5 ), both in terms of peak prevalence and in terms of total number infected. Strong social distancing maintains a high proportion of susceptible individuals in the population, leading to an intense epidemic when R0 rises in the late autumn and winter. None of the one-time interventions was effective i.....
Document: For simulations with seasonal forcing, the post-intervention resurgent peak could exceed the size of the unconstrained epidemic (Figure 2 , Figure S5 ), both in terms of peak prevalence and in terms of total number infected. Strong social distancing maintains a high proportion of susceptible individuals in the population, leading to an intense epidemic when R0 rises in the late autumn and winter. None of the one-time interventions was effective in maintaining the prevalence of critical cases below the critical care capacity.
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