Modeling and Controlling the Spread of Epidemic with Various Social and Economic Scenarios

Lukyanets, S. P.; Gandzha, I. S.; Kliushnychenko, O. V.

We propose a novel model for describing the spreading processes, in particular, epidemics. Our model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantine-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe various scenarios of epidemic spread. As compared to the basic SIR model, our model takes into account two possible routes of virus transmission: direct from the infected compartment to the susceptible compartment and indirect via some intermediate medium or fomites. The transmission rates are estimated in terms of the average distances between the individuals in selected social environments and characteristic relaxation times. We also introduce a resource activation function that reflects the load of the epidemics on economics and the limited capacity of the medical infrastructure. Our model brings an advantage of building various control strategies to minimize the effect of the epidemic and can be applied to modeling the recent COVID-19 outbreak.