Author: Quadrat, J.-P.
Title: 1-C Nonlinear Covid-19 Epidemic Model and Application to the Epidemic Prediction in France Cord-id: wrea12jd Document date: 2020_5_26
ID: wrea12jd
Snippet: We have shown in a previous paper that the standard time-invariant SIR model was not effective to predict the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic propagation. We have proposed a new model predicting z the logarithm of the number of detected-contaminated people. It follows a linear dynamical system z'= b-a z. We show here that we can improve this prediction using a non linear model z' = b-a z^r where r is an exponent that we have also to estimate from data. Some countries have an epidemic with a bell sh
Document: We have shown in a previous paper that the standard time-invariant SIR model was not effective to predict the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic propagation. We have proposed a new model predicting z the logarithm of the number of detected-contaminated people. It follows a linear dynamical system z'= b-a z. We show here that we can improve this prediction using a non linear model z' = b-a z^r where r is an exponent that we have also to estimate from data. Some countries have an epidemic with a bell shaped form that we call unimodal epidemic. With this new model, we fit observed data of different countries having an unimodal epidemic with a surprising quality. We discuss also the prediction quality obtained with these models at the epidemic start in France. Finally, we evaluate the containment impact on the Covid French mortality in hospitals.
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