Author: Omer Karin; Yinon M. Bar-On; Tomer Milo; Itay Katzir; Avi Mayo; Yael Korem; Boaz Dudovich; Amos J. Zehavi; Nadav Davidovich; Ron Milo; Uri Alon
Title: Adaptive cyclic exit strategies from lockdown to suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 5xfgmi2n_20
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053579 doi: medRxiv preprint strategies shows that in the mid-term and long term, the start-stop strategy accumulates more cases due to resurgences (Fig. 5 ). This does not depend heavily on parameters: the fundamental reason is new cases arise during each resurgence; the cyclic strategy keeps average R below one, and thus prevents r.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.04.20053579 doi: medRxiv preprint strategies shows that in the mid-term and long term, the start-stop strategy accumulates more cases due to resurgences (Fig. 5 ). This does not depend heavily on parameters: the fundamental reason is new cases arise during each resurgence; the cyclic strategy keeps average R below one, and thus prevents resurgences. If desired, the cyclic strategy can also keep cases near a low constant rate, by adjusting k to provide feedback control according to epidemiological measurements.
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