Adaptive cyclic exit strategies from lockdown to suppress COVID-19 and allow economic activity

Omer Karin; Yinon M. Bar-On; Tomer Milo; Itay Katzir; Avi Mayo; Yael Korem; Boaz Dudovich; Amos J. Zehavi; Nadav Davidovich; Ron Milo; Uri Alon

and an analogous equation for group B. We assume that each group consists of half of the population. This causes density at work to be reduced ( 6 ) . For ease of comparison to the non-staggered case, we refer to the replication numbers of a single fully mixed population with a cyclic strategy, namely = on work days and during lockdown. In the staggered R R W R = R L case, during lockdown, as opposed to work, individuals from a group interact primarily with their own household. The density in the household is not affected by dividing the population into two staggered work groups. Hence, the effective R remains . R L 8 . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.