Speed and strength of an epidemic intervention

Jonathan Dushoff; Sang Woo Park

Next, we consider a "test-and-treat" strategy in which infected individuals are identified, linked to care and receive antiretroviral therapy (ART) with the goal of both preserving health and preventing transmission through viral suppression. (Garnett and Baggaley, 2009; Granich et al., 2009; Nah et al., 2017) . Our assumptions for this scenario are shown in Fig. 4 . We assume that the hazard rate h test of this intervention starts at 0 (because there is no way for newly infected individuals to know that they have HIV) but increases very 6 . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license author/funder. It is made available under a The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.02.974048 doi: bioRxiv preprint L condom A q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q quickly (because sexually active individuals are the most likely to seek testing); after a few months, the assumed hazard rate goes down to account for the effects of people who avoid identification, persistent treatment failures, and the possibility of rare transmission even under effective treatment (Fig. 4C) . The corresponding strength of intervention L is shown in Fig. 4A and details of the assumption are given in the caption.