Forecast and interpretation of daily affected people during 21 days lockdown due to COVID 19 pandemic in India

Bhattacharyya, Achintya; Bhowmik, Dipak; Mukherjee, Joy

The problem of facing difficulty to control the spreading of newly detected novel corona virus 2019 is a matter of attention throughout the whole world. The total numbers of infected individuals have already crossed 2 million throughout the world. The government of all the affected countries have already taken many measures like lockdown to stop the spread. Therefore, it is important to study the nature of growth and interpretations are necessary for taking needful by the government. In this paper, we have tried to interpret the spreading capability of novel corona virus in India taking into consideration of 21 days lockdown data. The prediction is based on the present number of available cases and number of new cases reporting daily. We have explained the number of infected people in India comparing with Italy, China, Spain, and USA data of 21 days individually after announcing lockdown. The plot of daily new cases with the number of days spent after lockdown is fitted by linear and polynomial function. The best fitted graph is chosen for interpretation and that is based on the parameters obtained from fitting. The forecast of maximum spreading possibility is discussed with linear and 4-degree polynomial fitting parameters. Finally, some further preventive measurements are also discussed.