Intervention strategies against COVID-19 and their estimated impact on Swedish healthcare capacity

Jasmine M Gardner; Lander Willem; Wouter van der Wijngaart; Shina Caroline Lynn Kamerlin; Nele Brusselaers; Peter Kasson

Our results predict that Sweden's healthcare capacity (both for COVID-19 patients and for others) will be rapidly overwhelmed under the current strategy, both through the need to care for COVID-19 patients and because healthcare workers will themselves become ill and unable to work. [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] Intensive care capacity is projected to become a particular bottleneck, as shown in other countries. 50-52 For Sweden, this is in particular worrisome considering the relatively low availability of beds prior to the pandemic compared to other European countries 22 24 and recent reports challenging Swedish disaster preparedness. 53 We predict that aggressive suppressive measures can substantially reduce this healthcare capacity deficit but only if implemented in a timely manner. Whereas the predictive value of our model should become much clearer over the next two weeks, suppressive measures should be taken more immediately to have a substantial effect, especially for the Stockholm region. The projected mortality from COVID-19 may cause a Swedish all-cause mortality in 2020 exceeding that of 1918, which was the greatest absolute mortality in Sweden in the 20 th century. The COVID-19 pandemic and associated public-health measures will also impact non-COVID-19 related healthcare and mortality, as well the country's economy. These factors are beyond the scope of the present project.