Author: Stephen M Kissler; Christine Tedijanto; Marc Lipsitch; Yonatan Grad
Title: Social distancing strategies for curbing the COVID-19 epidemic Document date: 2020_3_24
ID: nzat41wu_13
Snippet: A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity. This resurgence could be especially intense if it coincides with a wintertime rise in R0. Intermittent socia.....
Document: A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity. This resurgence could be especially intense if it coincides with a wintertime rise in R0. Intermittent social distancing can maintain the prevalence of critical COVID-19 illness within current capacities, but this strategy could prolong the overall duration of the epidemic into 2022. Increasing critical care capacities would substantially reduce the overall duration of the epidemic while ensuring adequate care for the critically ill.
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