COVID-19: a qualitative chest CT model to identify severe form of the disease

Devie, Antoine; Kanagaratnam, Lukshe; Perotin, Jeanne-Marie; Jolly, Damien; Ravey, Jean-Noël; Djelouah, Manel; Hoeffel, Christine

Purpose – The purpose of this study was to identify clinical and chest computed tomography (CT) features associated with a severe form of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to propose a quick and easy to use model to identify patients at risk of a severe form. Materials and Methods – A total of 158 patients with biologically confirmed COVID-19 who underwent a chest CT after the onset of the symptoms were included. There were 84 men and 74 women with a mean age of 68 ± 14 (SD) years (range: 24–96 years). There were 100 non severe and 58 severe cases. Their clinical data were recorded and the first chest CT examination was reviewed using a computerized standardized report. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed in order to identify the risk factors associated with disease severity. Two models were built: one was based only on qualitative CT features and the other one included a semi-quantitative total CT score to replace the variable representing the extent of the disease. Areas under the ROC curves (AUC) of the two models were compared with DeLong’s method. Results – Central involvement of lung parenchyma (P < 0.001), area of consolidation (P < 0.008), air bronchogram sign (P < 0.001), bronchiectasis (P < 0.001), traction bronchiectasis (P < 0.011), pleural effusion (P < 0.026), large involvement of either one of the upper lobes or of the middle lobe (P < 0.001) and total CT score ≥ 15 (P < 0.001) were more often observed in the severe group than in the non-severe group. No significant differences were found between the qualitative model (large involvement of either upper lobes or middle lobe [odd ratio (OR) = 2.473), central involvement [OR = 2.760], pleural effusion [OR = 2.699] and the semi-quantitative model (total CT score ≥ 15 [OR = 3.342], central involvement [OR = 2.344], pleural effusion [OR = 2.754]) with AUC of 0.722 (95% CI: 0.638–0.806) vs. 0.739 (95% CI: 0.656–0.823), respectively (P = 0.209). Conclusion – We have developed a new qualitative CT-based multivariate model (NEWS2) that provides independent risk factors associated with severe COVID-19 with performances similar to those of the total semi-quantitative CT score.