Spread and control of COVID-19 in China and their associations with population movement, public health emergency measures, and medical resources

Songmin Ying; Fei Li; Xinwei Geng; Zhouyang Li; Xufei Du; Haixia Chen; Sisi Chen; Min Zhang; Zhehua Shao; Yinfang Wu; Madiha Zahra Syeda; Fugui Yan; Luanqing Che; Bin Zhang; Jian Lou; Shaobin Wang; Zhengming Chen; Wen Li; Ye Shen; Zhihua Chen; Huahao Shen

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10. 1101 Guangdong had the largest number of confirmed cases (1,332) but very low S/P ratio (0.35). 161 Fig. 3B shows the heat map of the daily growth rate of secondary cases from Jan 26 th to Feb 19 th , 162 2020 in different provinces. We found although daily growth rate varied among different provincial 163 areas, some of them had common characteristics (Fig. 3B) . Based on the daily growth rate of 164 secondary cases we further divided study regions into three categories. In the first group the maximum 165 values for daily growth rates were all <1.5, including Beijing, Guangdong, and Chongqing (Fig. 3C) . 166 Second category of provinces/cities (eg, Sichuan, Hebei, and Zhejiang) showed much higher growth 167 rate in the first few days, from Jan 26 th to 30 th , 2020, followed by a downward trend until reaching 168 that of the first category (Fig. 3D ). In the last category (eg, Heilongjiang and Tianjin) the daily growth 169 rate showed a sustained and rapid rise, especially during the 5 days after Jan 30 th , 2020 (Fig. 3E ). 170 We further examined the lag time, or displacement, between primary and secondary cases by area, CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.